Republican plans for massive budget savings have ignited fierce debate as Democrats claim the GOP is concealing the true impact of potential Medicaid cuts. With nearly one-fifth of Americans relying on Medicaid, the stakes couldn’t be higher in this political battle over healthcare funding.
GOP Budget Targets $880 Billion in Savings
The House Republican budget plan adopted on February 25 directs the Energy and Commerce Committee to find deficit reductions of at least $880 billion over the next decade. While the plan doesn’t explicitly name Medicaid, the program falls under this committee’s jurisdiction alongside Medicare and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
Republican leaders have firmly ruled out cuts to Medicare, the health insurance program for seniors that represents about 15% of the federal budget. By comparison, Medicaid accounts for approximately 8.6%.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s March 5 analysis, Medicaid represents 93% of funding under the committee’s jurisdiction when Medicare is excluded. This makes it mathematically impossible to achieve the targeted savings without significant Medicaid reductions.
Why CHIP Cuts Won’t Be Enough
After Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program represents the next-largest program under the committee’s jurisdiction. Experts note that even completely eliminating CHIP would achieve only a fraction of the required savings.
“It’s a fantasy to imply that federal Medicaid assistance won’t be cut very deeply,” said Allison Orris from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, confirmed that without Medicare cuts, the only path to $880 billion in savings requires substantial Medicaid reductions.
Senate Republicans Show Resistance
The proposed cuts aren’t finalized yet. While House Republicans passed their budget package, Senate Republicans are pursuing a different approach without such significant reductions.
Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has voiced opposition, telling HuffPost, “I would not do severe cuts to Medicaid.”
Any finalized budget blueprint would require Senate Republican support, suggesting months of negotiations lie ahead before concrete legislation emerges.
The Fraud Reduction Fallacy
Republican leaders have attempted to shift focus by highlighting Medicaid fraud elimination as their target rather than program cuts.
“I’m not going to touch Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. Now, we’re going to get fraud out of there,” former President Trump told Fox News on March 9, continuing his campaign promise to protect these programs.
House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed the government loses $50 billion annually in Medicaid payments “just in fraud alone.” However, this figure actually represents “improper payments” identified by the Government Accountability Office, which include documentation errors and incorrect amounts—not necessarily fraud.
Experts emphasize that even if all improper payments were eliminated, the savings would fall dramatically short of the $880 billion target.
Louisiana’s Medicaid Stakes
Notably, Louisiana—home to both Speaker Johnson and Representative Scalise—has one of the highest proportions of Medicaid enrollees among states. This adds another layer of political complexity to the brewing battle over healthcare funding.
With Republicans seeking massive budget savings to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and the government facing a potential shutdown by March 14 without a continuing resolution, the struggle over Medicaid’s future has only just begun.
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